Foreword
It is my belief that, amongst many things a good journalist should possess, one aspect is absolutely paramount: the ability to grasp the big truths by translating real-life pictures into words. My way of expressing such ideas is aimed at capturing the essence of the ineffable reality.

The Fat Nation
Nowadays I was riding the New York subway during the morning rush-hour time. As usual the train was packed. While stepping-in and glancing from a distance, I noticed four people sitting on a 6-seat bench. Mesmerizing and equally shocking fact: when approaching the bench I realized that there were only four people using the entire space. There were three morbidly obese people and a regular but extremely squeezed guy.
As an intellectual exercise, let’s use some probability theory now. With 25 lines in service, NY subway is averaging over 5.25 million riders on weekdays. Assuming ten 6-seat benches per subway car, the probability of 3 people seating on the same bench is 1 percent. According to the Center for Disease Control, New York City’s class III obesity rate – people with Body Mass Index over 40, reads a level of 2.4 percent. Bottom line, the probability of finding three high-BMI people sitting on the same bench is close to 1 in 4,200 cases. Counting 250 business days per year, it will take another 17 years to witness a similar strange coincidence.
Something is telling me that it will take much less than that to get shocked again.

2 Responses to “Black Swan”


  1. 1 Adrian September 8, 2009 at 5:35 AM

    Interesting way to measure the consuming society. It is excellent described also in the cartoons Wall-E. Sometimes I wonder if these cartoons are made for children or for us. It is an interesting exercise to ask yourself what is your role in the society/universe described in Wall-E..

    • 2 Toni September 8, 2009 at 9:07 AM

      Adrian,
      Glad you enjoyed it. Frankly speaking, the situation its getting worse back-home too. A couple of summers ago I went to the Black Sea and I noticed many “black swans” on the beach. Especially amongst the young generation.


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